Miami shows how a new kind of gentrification is coming to US cities
- Miami's real-estate market is feeling the effects of the climate crisis and a growing population.
- Wealthier residents are moving to higher ground, putting pressure on lower-income communities.
- A general lack of affordable housing is also hurting Miami's low-income and immigrant communities.
Miami has one of the hottest real-estate markets in the country. A flood of transplants over the last several years has pushed home prices and rents ever higher in the city, making it harder for lower-income Floridians to live there.
Furthermore, the climate crisis has made living in many of the city's low-lying waterfront neighborhoods increasingly perilous despite their desirable ocean views and proximity to the beach.
Some of the city's lower-income communities are farther inland and on higher ground than the traditionally ritzier areas. This makes them safer from rising sea levels but more at risk of "climate gentrification" as Miami's wealthier residents start snapping up land and homes in less flood-prone areas.
Higher-elevation neighborhoods further inland, such as Little Haiti, Overtown, and Liberty City, are seeing real-estate values rise. Developers are increasingly promoting housing in parts of the city that experience less flooding, researchers have found.
"Such shifts in migration patterns accelerate the displacement of established residents and inflate property values and taxes, widening the socio-economic divide," Moody's wrote in a new report.
More than half of the 2.6 million people living in Miami-Dade County could be displaced if sea levels rise by 40 inches, a study published last year in Environmental Research Letters said.
The problem will likely get worse as the impacts of warming temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme storms worsen — and as millennials, who are concerned about climate risks, grow as a share of homebuyers. And Miami is far from alone — coastal flooding, extreme heat, and other climate-related weather events are affecting cities across the country.
But in many US cities, lower-income and predominantly Black neighborhoods are in areas with less tree cover, higher temperatures, and a greater risk of flooding. Black residents of Southeastern states are more likely to live in places impacted by excessive heat, flooding, and hurricanes, an analysis from McKinsey found in 2023.
Miami-Dade had a median income of $60,989 in 2022, which was 13.6% lower than the state's median of $69,303, according to Census data. Though 12.7% of Floridians live in poverty, a higher number of Miami-Dade residents do at 14.4%.
The city has very few affordable-housing units on the market because of a "supply imbalance" that stems from more higher-end homes being built than lower-priced ones, Moody's reported. "Rather than moving to more affordable options, residents are pushed towards higher-cost housing due to the lack of mid-range options," the report said.
Miami residents are also spending a larger share of their income on housing these days. The rent-to-income ratio in Miami rose from 35.9% in 2019 to 37% at the end of 2023, Moody's reported. Meanwhile, the mortgage-to-income ratio surged from 30.7% in 2019 to 58.5% in 2023.
Correction: April 9, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the number of people who could be displaced by rising sea levels in Miami-Dade County. It's over half the county's current population of 2.6 million, not over 1 million.
Watch: See Hurricane Idalia's $10 billion path of destruction
ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7o8HSoqWeq6Oeu7S1w56pZ5ufonyutcCmoGabnJ66osDEZpqhmZ6csm6zxKerq6GWnrCiwMiopWaenKS8pbXNoGShp6Wotq%2BzjJypoquZqHqzscClZJ6rpJbBpnnPq6CcnaNif3F%2Bk2Zr